Terminální hodnota

Terminal Value · Residual Value

The value of all a company's cash flows beyond the explicit projection period (typically after year 10).

TV = FCF₁₀ / (WACC − g)

Valuation

What it is

In a DCF model, FCF is projected for typically 10 years. But a company exists (ideally) forever — what then?

Terminal value captures all cash flows from year 11 to infinity in a single number:

TV = FCF₁₀ / (WACC − g)

where g = terminal growth rate (typically 2–3.5%, close to nominal GDP). The formula assumes FCF₁₀ is the first year of the perpetuity — meaning FCF in year 11 is FCF₁₀ × (1 + g), and TV is calculated at the start of that year.

Terminal value typically represents 60–80% of the total DCF value — making it the dominant component of the valuation.

Why track it

Because terminal value makes up the majority of the DCF result, a small change in assumptions (g or WACC) dramatically alters the resulting share price. Be conservative — terminal growth significantly above inflation is not sustainable forever.

Real-world example

If WACC = 9% and g = 3%, the denominator is 6%. Changing g to 3.5% (denominator 5.5%) increases the terminal value by ~9%. A seemingly small difference, but on a large FCF base that means billions.

Watch out for

Terminal value is the biggest source of errors in DCF. Never use a terminal growth rate higher than long-term nominal GDP for mature companies. Exceptions are rare — companies that grow faster than the economy forever would eventually "absorb" it.

DCF WACC FCF